Apartment list has a tool that lets you see, for residents of any city, where tenants are searching for new apartments. It gives an indication of where people are considering moving. You can also perform a search in the other Read more…
Case-Shiller released their latest numbers on April 26. In absolute terms, prices are 57% above the bubble peak in 2006. Of course, the Fed has printed so many dollars that today’s dollars are not worth nearly as much as 2006 Read more…
The Dallas Fed looked at multiple indicators to conclude that a Housing Bubble is probably forming. They started by looking at exuberance, rapid increases in absolute housing prices, and found indications of “exuberance” starting around 2020. They noted that the Read more…
Probably not. 8/9 is the Fed’s record on triggering a recession while trying to fix inflation Nine times since 1961, the Fed has ratcheted up interest rate increases to try to control inflation. In eight out of those nine times Read more…
According to John Mauldin, another recession is already here, or will be soon. He states that most recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. An inverted yield curve is when long bond rates go below short bond rates. The Read more…
Bill McBride is one of the few people who correctly called the last housing bubble. He has repeatedly stated that if we are close to a top, we will see it in higher inventory, which hasn’t happened yet. In his Read more…
Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO mutual funds book, makes the case that we are in a stock market and housing superbubble. He talks about the stock and other markets as being multiple standard deviations from trendlines. He refers to a Read more…
In a Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted nationwide was reported as being 43% above the bubble peak in 2006. Case-Shiller indices are at new all times highs (above the bubble peak) in nominal terms. Adjusting for inflation using CPI less Read more…
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) suggests that the housing market will soften this year. 26% of respondents said it is a good time to buy a home, town from 29%. 66% percent of respondents say it is Read more…
According to a report by a Florida Atlantic University professor, there are signs that values of multiple cities in the west have peaked. A report by researchers at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University shows home-price cooling in the Read more…
Take with a grain of salt, of course. It is extremely difficult to predict when asset prices will go down. But he could be right. In my opinion, a lot depends on what the Fed actually does. The Fed often Read more…
Many articles that discuss migration within the United State rely on government census data. The census, while meticulous and very detailed, only happens every ten years so is rarely up to date. U-Haul tracks one way rentals of their trucks Read more…
Some automated analysis websites publish expected rental yields if renting on a short term basis. Some buyers look at nightly figures and underestimate vacancies, repairs, and headaches when guessing at annual net rental income. Other buyers think they can buy Read more…
According to Bill McBride, if inventory doesn’t increase in 2022, house prices will continue to increase at a double-digit pace. On the other hand, inventory could increase in 2022. There are several scenarios where it does: If there is a Read more…
It is hard for the Fed to increase interest rates without a risk of causing a recession. An increase in interest rates also puts downward pressure on real estate values as new buyers now qualify for lower monthly payments. It Read more…