Bill McBride is one of the few people who correctly called the last housing bubble. He has repeatedly stated that if we are close to a top, we will see it in higher inventory, which hasn’t happened yet.
In his latest post, he recalls a graph that he supplied in 2005 showing household mortgage debt as a % of GDP.
He also provided a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP through Q3 2021. He believes that, in comparison to 2005, mortgage debt isn’t a concern and lending standards are much better now than during the bubble.
So it is possible that we are not quite at a peak yet.