According to Bill McBride, if inventory doesn’t increase in 2022, house prices will continue to increase at a double-digit pace.
On the other hand, inventory could increase in 2022. There are several scenarios where it does:
If there is a sharp increase in mortgage rates. This is possible if inflation stays high (i.e., is not transitory) and the Fed actually raises interest rates.
If economic problems overseas spillover into the US; e.g., the Evergrande default in China and bursting of the Chinese property bubble.
If unregulated areas of finance causes economic problems; e.g., Bitcoin.
If affordability continues to decrease; e.g., due to higher interest rates and/or higher prices.
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/question-9-for-2022-what-will-happen