Deepak Malhotra, Investor & Landlord, Cheney WA,  99004

Case-Shiller, Affordability, and Price to Rent Ratios


In a Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted nationwide was reported as being 43% above the bubble peak in 2006.  Case-Shiller indices are at new all times highs (above the bubble peak) in nominal terms.

Adjusting for inflation using CPI less Shelter, the National index is 8.5% above the peak of the last bubble, and the Composite 20 index is at the peak of the last bubble, early 2006.

Considering price versus rent, the Case-Shiller National index is back to October 2005 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to February 2005 levels.

Considering price versus income, we are at levels of June 2005, a bit before the last peak.

By all these measures, prices appear elevated.

Bill McBride, who correctly called the last bubble, has his own affordability index, which is more of a house price index adjusted by mortgage rates and the median household income.

Using his index, in general, he would suggest houses are fairly affordable right now. But he not necessarily saying that this is a good time to buy. You can read more in his article linked below:

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio-832?r=q9bb2&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email