This article provides some real estate predictions for 2020 and beyond. The article explains that, despite the recession, high unemployment, and increased bankruptcies, that real estate values are rising nationwide. This is because of low supply and because of unprecedented fiscal stimulus by the Fed.
https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/why-real-estate-prices-rising-pandemic
The article goes on to say that this is a head fake. Forbearance by the banks (prohibition on foreclosures) will not go on forever. It takes quite some time for a default to become a foreclosure. And longer for foreclosures to drag down the housing market as a while. By some predictions, mortgage holders are expecting up to 15 million defaults.
Foreclosures will eventually push down housing values. The author doesn’t know when this will happen but believes that it is highly likely it will happen to one degree or another.
I agree. My real estate prediction for 2020 is that we will see values go up for another 6 months or so then the foreclosures will start. We have some unmet demand because builders never fully got back up to speed after many went out of business because of the 2008 crash. During the shutdown, builders could not build. At the same time, lending is tightening. Banks will soon be in bad shape because they have been forced to allow borrowers to suspend payments and will continue to tighten lending standards. If buyers can’t borrow, due to tightened lending standards or unexpected unemployment, demand will decrease. Cities where it is much more expensive to buy than rent will be most affected, along with second home locations.
At present, it is more expensive to own than rent in Spokane and Cheney. It is next to impossible to find positive cash flow. It was not always that way. Perhaps in a couple of years, we will see some amazing deals.