Many articles that discuss migration within the United State rely on government census data. The census, while meticulous and very detailed, only happens every ten years so is rarely up to date.
U-Haul tracks one way rentals of their trucks and uses that to informally determine where people are moving. More particularly, growth states are determined using the net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a state versus leaving that state in a calendar year. Not everyone uses a U-Haul, of course, and they do not attempt to track every person, so these results are not precise. On the other hand, they are much more up to date than census data.
In 2021, U-Haul’s top 10 growth states were:
2021 U-Haul Growth States
| 1. | TEXAS |
| 2. | FLORIDA |
| 3. | TENNESSEE |
| 4. | SOUTH CAROLINA |
| 5. | ARIZONA |
| 6. | INDIANA |
| 7. | COLORADO |
| 8. | MAINE |
| 9. | IDAHO |
| 10. | NEW MEXICO |
The top three growth states have no state income tax. With more employees able to work from home, it made financial sense to work from a location that has no state income tax or lower housing costs than the expensive tech centers. Texas has a strong job market and low cost of living, along with no state income tax. Texas’s growth is statewide, though some of its biggest gains occurred in the suburbs around Dallas-Fort Worth. Florida’s gains are also widespread, with growth south of Orlando and along both coasts. Both Texas and Florida the number 1 and number 2 growth states did not have tight Covid lockdowns. So this may have partly been a flight to freedom.
U-Haul’s bottom 10 states were:
| 41. | ARKANSAS |
| 42. | MICHIGAN |
| 43. | LOUISIANA |
| 44. | OKLAHOMA |
| 45. | NEW YORK |
| 46. | ALABAMA |
| 47. | MASSACHUSETTS |
| 48. | PENNSYLVANIA |
| 49. | ILLINOIS |
| 50. | CALIFORNIA |
It is no surprise to see high cost/high tax/high density California on the bottom of the list, along with high cost/high tax Massachusetts, and high crime Illinois. Also, many people left New York City during the pandemic due to its high density. Many of the things people liked about New York City, such as its restaurants, ended up being closed during the pandemic. There are signs that some people are moving back to New York City, as rents there are starting to increase again.
Washington State ranked number 15.