The U.S. housing market is in a downturn. Bidding wars have given way to, first, more days on market, and, now, we are seeing price reductions. The turning point was when the Fed raised interest rates dramatically. At least that’s Read more…
Spokane has had a very hot housing market for the last few years. Bidding wars were the norms. Reasons for this included the new work-from-anywhere trend caused by Covid, and lower density and prices than nearby tech centers like Redmond Read more…
Builder sentiment in the market for single-family homes fell into negative territory in August, as builders and buyers struggle with higher costs. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 6 points to 49 this month, its Read more…
With interest rates increasing, more potential buyers are priced out of the market. Inventory seems to be finally rising dramatically and we are seeing more price reductions than last year. It is possible that we are at or at least Read more…
These are clear signs of a market shift. According to Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, “May homebuilder survey results published last week. Top themes: 1) Builder metrics quickly deteriorating across the board. 2) Read more…
Several elites are predicting tough times ahead, as interest rates rise. There is a very interesting slideshow from Sequoia Capital, with dire predictions, recommending that companies adapt to endure. Some recommendations include looking at cuts to preserve capital and making Read more…
Apartment list has a tool that lets you see, for residents of any city, where tenants are searching for new apartments. It gives an indication of where people are considering moving. You can also perform a search in the other Read more…
Case-Shiller released their latest numbers on April 26. In absolute terms, prices are 57% above the bubble peak in 2006. Of course, the Fed has printed so many dollars that today’s dollars are not worth nearly as much as 2006 Read more…
The Dallas Fed looked at multiple indicators to conclude that a Housing Bubble is probably forming. They started by looking at exuberance, rapid increases in absolute housing prices, and found indications of “exuberance” starting around 2020. They noted that the Read more…
Probably not. 8/9 is the Fed’s record on triggering a recession while trying to fix inflation Nine times since 1961, the Fed has ratcheted up interest rate increases to try to control inflation. In eight out of those nine times Read more…
According to John Mauldin, another recession is already here, or will be soon. He states that most recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. An inverted yield curve is when long bond rates go below short bond rates. The Read more…
Bill McBride is one of the few people who correctly called the last housing bubble. He has repeatedly stated that if we are close to a top, we will see it in higher inventory, which hasn’t happened yet. In his Read more…
Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO mutual funds book, makes the case that we are in a stock market and housing superbubble. He talks about the stock and other markets as being multiple standard deviations from trendlines. He refers to a Read more…
In a Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted nationwide was reported as being 43% above the bubble peak in 2006. Case-Shiller indices are at new all times highs (above the bubble peak) in nominal terms. Adjusting for inflation using CPI less Read more…
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) suggests that the housing market will soften this year. 26% of respondents said it is a good time to buy a home, town from 29%. 66% percent of respondents say it is Read more…