Deepak Malhotra, Investor & Landlord, Cheney WA,  99004

Homes flooding the market in UK


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8315081/Coronavirus-UK-Homes-flood-market-desperate-owners-battle-sell.html

The above article indicates that homes are flooding the market in the UK. This information can be used to make real estate predictions for 2020 that are unfavorable, at least in the UK. Their market is not necessarily the same as ours. And they have not been allowed to sell while we (mostly) have with some restrictions. In Washington State, only two people have been allowed to go through a unit at a time, during showings, when a property is on the MLS. In Nevada, tenanted units could not be shown at all.

It is possible we will be seeing price reductions. I expect they will happen most in second home areas. Business owners may sacrifice a second home to save a business. And people may sacrifice second homes for liquidity.

I continue to believe that it comes down to cap rate. In overpriced coastal markets, where values have gone up so far that the mortgage greatly exceeds the amount of rent that could be generated by renting out the same property, values are likely to come down over the next several years. There may be a few months up first. In areas where it is cheaper to own than rent, values should not be as badly affected. That is my best real estate prediction for 2020. A lot of things can change that, such as changes to the tax laws or other government incentives to buy.